In the past few years, lots of novice
investors -- and more experienced individuals who should have known better --
decided that they really didn't have to know much about the companies whose stocks
they were buying. If a stock was moving up rapidly, it was good enough for
them.
This approach became known as
"momentum" investing -- and it didn't take long before it was
discredited, as the fledgling Internet and technology companies that had sparked
the momentum concept crashed back to earth in a matter of months.
Now that sales, profits, products and good
management are back in vogue, here are three ways to tell if a company is a
solid prospect for your portfolio:
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The balance sheet. What's the company's financial health? The balance
sheet will tell you. A company's balance sheet is quite simple to obtain. It's
easily accessible by looking up the company's profile on the Yahoo Finance
Internet site. It's also fairly easy to understand. It lets you know what
assets and liabilities the company has, and how much short-term and long-term
debt it owes.
A company with a "clean" balance sheet has a good ratio of assets to
liabilities, little or no debt, and substantial cash. Proven companies with
cash and no debt can be held through good times and bad because they earn
interest on the money they have instead of making interest payments on the
money they owe. They have the financial strength to weather any storm.
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Revenue growth. Sometimes
you'll come across a company that has a clean balance sheet but not much in the
way of sales. These are almost always young, unproven companies in fields such
as biotech and high technology. These companies have raised cash from investors
through a public stock offering, but have yet to come up with a winning product
or service. Their stocks are high- risk because such companies can burn up
their cash before ever turning a profit.
An investor looking for real growth wants to see a steady pattern of revenue
gains over a period of years. Companies that consistently increase their sales
are connecting with the marketplace.
Large sales gains accompanied by small profits are not a good sign, but are
often explainable. A company could be pouring money into expansion and new
product development, or a company may need to be operated more efficiently.
Companies with big sales and small profits shouldn't be an investor's first
choice, but shouldn't be dismissed either. When a company finds a way to bring
more of those sales dollars to the bottom line, the stock can become a big
winner.
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Growing profits. For an
investor, the best of all worlds is finding a company with a clean balance
sheet, steadily increasing sales and a record of double-digit annual earnings
growth. When you find a company like this, your key decision is whether the
company's stock is reasonably priced.
In 1980, you could buy shares of rapidly growing blue-chip companies at 15 to
20 times the most recent year's earnings. In other words, if the company had
earned a $2.00 a share for the past year, you could probably purchase the stock
somewhere near $35.
Today, high-tech, high-growth companies like Cisco Systems can sell for 100
times earnings. But do a little digging using the Yahoo Finance or CNBC.com Web
sites and the stock tables of the Wall Street Journal, and you can
identify sound, growing companies selling at reasonable earnings multiples.
If you can find the combination of a clean
balance sheet, steadily growing sales and ever-increasing profits in companies
with reasonable earnings multiples, you won't go far wrong in your stock
purchase selections.
Ophthalmology Management Associate Editor Jerry Helzner has written more than
50 articles on stock investing for Barron's. He has been a regular stock market
columnist for other business publications and was a member of the equity
research department of a major regional brokerage firm.